It's FREE

Not much is free in this world, as in 'no strings attached', but this one really is.  Every so often Amazon gives authors the chance to go to a wider audience by giving their book away free as a download for a few days.

I have now taken advantage of this from today until Monday 6th November, which means that you, dear reader, and any of your enlightened friends, can download all 68,000 words absolutely FREE on to your Kindle or Kindle app.

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Dots-Legacy-Park-Stories-Colin-ebook/dp/B01M2B224E/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1509613487&sr=8-1&keywords=dots+legacy

Enjoy.
Colin

Welcome to 2016!

Well, it is for our two hero’s of The Park Stories.  ‘Beyond the Park gates’ is the second book to celebrate the struggles of Rhys and Anne, as life throws brickbats and prizes wrapped up in the diverse, not to say downright strange, people who surround them.

Just published on Amazon, you can be amongst the first to find out what happened after the cliff-hanger that I left you with in ‘Dot’s Legacy’.

Not read ‘Dot’s Legacy’?  You can, FOR FREE,  From Thursday 2^nd November to Monday 9^th you can go to the Amazon website and download ‘Dot’s Legacy’ absolutely FREE.  (All the reviews are 5 Star, you won’t be disappointed). Because I know that afterwards you will want to read ‘Beyond the Park Gates’.

Competition time

The first person to read ‘Beyond the Park Gates’ and write a review on Amazon, wins signed copies of both books. (Who knows what they might be worth should Rhys and Anne become the next Harry and Hermione?)

So please, share this news with your friends and relatives, at the very least they won’t blame you for giving them a FREE book.

Colin

It's all a bit negative

These two pictures were taken from the same spot, minutes apart. The first would be deleted, the second cropped to produce a powerful image.

Thinking some more about lost skills, (see : Me and brass balls), I am in two minds about photography.

Watching a carnival recently, it was like a Mexican Wave, the hundreds of iPads sequencing a 'picture opportunity' as it passed.

They each, no doubt, took a well exposed, wide angle picture of the procession and provided memories for years to come. Dozens of 'snaps' that are as good as most cameras would produce on automatic.

Then there are the billions of mobile phone 'selfies' produced around the world each week.

I was here

I ate this

I drank this

I did this

I look like this

And this

And this

And this

Facebook fodder for friends and family, pictures that would not have been taken with a camera.

So what is my problem with all these photos?

Am I just being a camera snob who had to learn about Exposure, Stops, Speed, Differential focus, Rule of thirds, Composition, Lighting?

Did Cartier Bresson's 'decisive moment' mean every moment from every angle was equally valid?

Or are we building the best archive that any future historians could wish for?

Or could it all be wiped when cloud computing has to be de-cluttered sometime in the future?

The vast technical advances in digital photography and manipulation means most photos, whether taken by phones or cameras, will produce an acceptable image.

I suppose my real question is, does an 'acceptable image' become the end in itself, or does the vast proliferation of good quality cameras and phones lead to more people becoming dissatisfied with 'acceptable images' and strive to make pictures?

Colin Payn

12/9/2017

Me and brass balls

I 

Me and Brass Balls

Me, I love seeing how things work. Give me a bit of unknown machinery with cogs and drive shafts, pistons or springs, pivots or chains and I’m mesmerised.

Some people like crosswords or Sudoku, which is OK as brain fodder, but with no tactile experience.  You need to feel the delicate balance of a lever or the tension of a spring; in addition to the brain workout of wondering what it is for or how does it work.

I remember learning to use a centre lathe and being set the task of producing a perfectly spherical ball from a round bar of brass – to within 5 thousands of an inch of design size. What the instructor didn’t mention was that brass heats up quickly when machined.  However perfectly round the first couple of attempts, they were always too small when the time came for inspection.

Why?  Because measuring them with a micrometer whilst in the lathe, (not turning, of course) was a waste of time until the metal cooled down.  Spot on in the chuck could be 2 thou. smaller by the time the ball had stood waiting for that crafty inspection.

Working with capstan lathes was all about changing the gearing cogs to fit the speed of the material being worked on.  But I don’t expect anyone in manufacturing companies have to do this anymore.  No doubt the computer can out-perform my best results to produce a brass ball exact to .0000001 of an inch, when cold, time after time.

The nobility of engineers were the pattern makers, those master craftsmen who could produce anything from scratch, to a zero tolerance off the plan, using eye and hand as much as the finest measuring tools. I expect most of them are long gone with the arrival of Computer Aided Design and 3D printing.

My worry is that all these skills are being lost. But does it matter? After all we lost the skills of tens of thousands of blacksmiths when horses gave way to the internal combustion engine and mass produced fire pokers and tongs. Why should I be concerned when what replaces these skilled craftsmen are quicker, more accurate and cheaper production methods?

Perhaps it is also the unforeseen consequential loss of the art of mending things, and with it the great feeling of personal satisfaction that something that was useless is now restored to full working order at little or no cost. All thanks to the combination of experience, skill and the right tools.

Give me an industrial museum with great clunky bits of metal turning, moving or reciprocating. The air laced with the smell of hot oil, and the noise of motors whirring and banging, and I’ll be young again, with a 3/16ths Whitworth, chrome molybdenum spanner and a set of feeler gauges sticking out of my back pocket, and that adolescence confidence that I can fix anything.

What do you think?

Birdseed to bombs

Birdseed to bombs – are they connected?

 Sitting watching the birds in the garden I was struck by the seeming inefficiency of the blue tits feeding methods. Hop about in the hedge a few times, fly to the feeder, one seed and back to the hedge. They all appeared to be programmed with the similar actions, from trees to bird table or fat balls. Surely all that hopping about and flight must use up most of the energy from that one seed? Far better to stop for a few more grains, have a proper snack, don’t they get indigestion?

Of course they do it for a very good reason, safety. For theirs is a far more precarious existence than ours. Death is but a shadow away, a rush of air, the razor sharp talons reaching out to enclose their little feathered bodies, the cruel curved beak the last thing they feel.

 But, then I got to thinking, is our life so different? We can be snatched from existence at any time, a car accident, plane crash, heart defect, stress, cancer, alcohol. And some of these are because we didn’t heed the warning and stayed too long at the table, didn’t do enough exercise.

Then there are whole nations that veer the opposite way, spending such a great deal on defence that they suck the pool dry of scientists who could have made discoveries to benefit the lot of humans and creatures across the world.

These are important thoughts that need to be widely known, as many older, experienced people around the world are probably thinking in their individual cocoons. But just as they feel able to put their revelations on paper, they fall asleep in the afternoon sun, or they are needed for the shopping trip, or to pick up the grandchildren. The moment has gone, the wisdom that they could have imparted to the next generation is lost in the rush of life.

Is this the natural progression, the wisdom of one generation failing to be passed on to the next? Does it mean that each new set of thinkers has to make their own decisions without the benefit of other’s hindsight? Does this result in the liberation to have innovative ideas and solutions to life’s challenges? Or does it ensure that they make the same mistakes as the last lot?

That trip to Sainsburys for birdseed might have a lot to answer for.

Want a better battery?

In the news last week were two 'T's, Trump in denial over the Paris Climate change Agreement, and Tesla, the Elon Musk giant battery project in South Australia.

Trump is pretending that he can honour his election pledge to the coal miners that he will secure their jobs by continuing to produce their expensive and polluting product, whilst knowing full well that they will be put out of business by home grown shale oil and gas companies in the near future.

Tesla gambling on the wind and sun based energy allowing their battery to iron out the supply difficulties of the Australian energy systems and reduce the price per megawatt.

Back in January 2016 I wrote an article about how energy storage could transform our world, both environmentally and politically. Does it still ring true with the latest developments?

Want a better battery?

Of course you do, think recharging your phone once a week, a laptop plugged in every month, a car that could drive from London to Manchester without a two hour wait at Birmingham.

That would explain why companies are investing in ways of upgrading batteries, but why are Governments around the World pouring hundreds of millions of pounds into energy storage research? Don’t we need more energy, not just better ways to hold on to it?

The answer is that a breakthrough in this technology could be more revolutionary for the World than the invention of the computer or television.  And that could be good for some governments, and a disaster for others.

Let’s just identify what we mean by energy storage. Primarily it is any method of collecting electricity, itself generated by any means, and efficiently converting it into a form that can accessed at will sometime in the future. Naturally, the cheaper the cost of production the better, but this is where Renewable fall down as their efficiency is at the mercy of the weather and, for solar, only during daylight.  The cheap and clean potential of Renewables can only be released by developing  storage solutions.

We are all consumers

Taking the consumer market view first. The ability to miniaturise and reduce weight could open the floodgates to new products presently tethered by cords or hampered by heavyweight batteries. Cordless drills that lasted all day on a building site, safety torches that could last two days, communications equipment easily carried in remote places, even a cordless iron to replace that permanently knotted cable. Electric buses that ran all day, even lorries with enough power to move heavy loads and true recoverable energy from ordinary electric cars.  The openings for manufacturers would be on a scale not seen since electricity itself was discovered.

Imagine a television able to run for a week on batteries which took only a couple of hours of sunlight to power up. The market for this throughout Africa alone would be immense, add India, Pakistan and every other place in the World with sunlight but no hope of infrastructure to bring power to a community, and the possibilities are immense. Add other products, computers, cars, X boxes, a myriad of items we take for granted as we plug in to our many 230 volt sockets at home or work. But, you may ask, how are these poor communities going to afford to buy these items? The excess stored power after domestic needs were satisfied would be enough to run businesses, entertainment and, more likely, sink wells to irrigate the land and produce crops where none grew before.

Industry & Governments

 Using even the current inefficient methods of storage there are already municipal schemes in Germany utilising the excess electricity being produced by domestic and commercial solar and wind generators to feed back into the system during high demand periods.  In contrast, in Scotland some wind farms have been paid to turn off their output when demand is low. The situation is inconsistent because current storage methods are still experimental, the efficiency low and the start up costs high.  The major concentration of research is on heavy duty systems that will allow national power distributors to modulate the demand spikes that cost so much in extra generator building.  This is the area which will bring the most immediate returns for governments. In the UK the cost of building new nuclear power stations runs into billions of pounds and with massive questions over safety and the disposal of waste over centuries to come.

With a 5 to10 fold increase in storage efficiency the economics change dramatically. Existing wind and solar farms would be able to work at full capacity feeding the National Grid storage, and both households and businesses would be able to save enough power inhouse to substantially reduce demand from the National Grid. Would we then need those expensive nuclear replacement plants as we fade out the coal fired stations?  Would we need to be reliant on Russian gas imports during the winter?

Green Credentials

The change to clean energy production, even if not for heavy industry, would complement the dramatic fall in pollution caused by new vehicles, as long range electric cars climbed out of their niche market and became mainstream, followed by city buses and local delivery  vans. Although most marked for cities in China and India, here in UK the reduction in cases of respiratory diseases would be a plus for the NHS.  

The Kyoto Protocol in 1992, the Treaty in 1997, the Doha 2^nd Commitment in 2012 and the Paris summit last year, all looked at ways of spreading the pain of reducing carbon emissions. Unless the last one is any different each of the previous ones have seen all the gains of the many countries wiped out by the increases in carbon smoked out by the USA and China.  A dramatic change to Renewables on a world wide scale, led by consumer demand and economic self interest has the potential to make such pain sharing unnecessary.

So, we can see that there would be many obvious advantages to increasing ‘battery storage’, in all its diverse forms, from personal entertainment to national cost saving.

The dictatorship of oil

But the explosive effect of such a breakthrough would be in its geo political consequences. Consider the African continent with its huge mineral resources, currently a target of the Chinese industry. To avoid building massive infrastructure to generate power the raw materials are currently shipped to other parts of the world for refining and conversion into manufactured products. If some of that work could be retained around the source of the minerals it would generate opportunities for jobs that would require the advances in educational opportunities in the area.  And the irrigation of land affected by regular devastating droughts would also raise the bar for international emergency relief and open the possibilities to move from a subsistence culture to realising the potential of millions of human beings. Among them could be the doctor, engineer, mathematician, entrepreneur or scientist, who could provide one of those great leaps of thought which characterise our advancement of knowledge. At the very least we could see the elimination of poverty caused by foreseeable natural events.

Then there are those countries for which the discovery of power storage on a grand scale would spell potential economic disaster. The oil rich kingdoms like Saudi Arabia, with a hitherto untouchable feudal regime based on the same Wahhabism that is the bedrock of Isis beliefs. They have invested Sovereign funds in many different industries across the globe knowing that their massive income can buy influence as well as future profits. Breaking the stranglehold of one of the World’s most troublesome areas, the Middle East, would transform the balance of power throughout region. Between them, Saudi, Iran and the United Arab Republics have a ransom 20% of World oil production, together with some of the worst human rights records, and religious conflicts that affect all countries. Draining that power by creating alternative energy sources would see a major political realignment which could encourage change without armed conflict.

Another big loser would be Russia, currently producing about 13% of the World’s oil, but also a major player in supplying gas to former Eastern Bloc countries and able to influence their policies by withdrawing supplies or putting up the price substantially.  Russia’s loss of influence in the region could be of more consequence than the revenue if their ‘customers’ could generate, or buy surplus electricity from other European states. But, there is great danger here of the Russian reaction if Nato is seen to be prowling on their doorstep.

There could also be serious consequences for the economies of smaller countries reliant on oil revenue, such as Nigeria and Venezuela.

There would be a financial downside for the UK, tax revenue from North Sea Oil, defence industry orders scrapped by the Saudi’s  leading to possible unemployment rises.

Conclusion

How much increase in storage capacity  would be needed to enable the changes described? In crude terms, a 5 times increase would mean your mobile would need charging every five days. An electric car averaged 70 to 80 miles on a full charge in 2015, not enough to get from London to Birmingham, with a five fold increase it still wouldn’t quite get you to Edinburgh. A ten fold increase would get you to Berlin, Geneva or Bordeaux.

When might a breakthrough of this magnitude be made? With the finance and breadth of primary research being carried out worldwide, a ten year lead time would not seem out of the question, with another ten to twenty years to develop the technology on a commercial scale.  The World could look a very different place in our children’s lifetime.

But, have the Saudi’s or the major oil companies invested in research into power storage with a view to applying patents that could delay the implementation of any breakthrough’s in the technology?

Whatever the advantages of making the World a cleaner, more energy equal place, there is no claim it would make it any safer from Man’s greed, envy, or thirst for power.

Colin Payn

25 January 2016

Should we keep on mugging our friends and family?

How many mugs do you have in your house?

I don’t just mean the ones you use every day but all the others, tucked away in kitchen cupboards or hidden behind other unused ‘stuff’ in a drawer.

I counted mine the other day, (sad), and there were 52! They take up all three shelves of a wall cupboard plus those in the dishwasher and the camping set. Even with the usual flow of visitors through our house we seldom put more than a dozen in the dishwasher each night. That means the mug makers have lumbered us with over four times as many of their products as we need.

How did this happen? Have we been forgetful of our stock situation or have we been profligate with our impulse buys? Or is it friends and family bringing us ‘interesting’ mugs back from far and wide.

In the interests of scientific research, and in an effort to avoid a total collapse of my wall cupboard, I have done a survey on the antecedents of our mug collection. Here are some of the results, I would say ‘interesting’ results, but that is for you to judge.

·         Everyday buy and still in use: 13

·         Bought to fit in a motorhome which has been sold: 8

·         Bought on impulse and still in use:  0

·         Bought on impulse and not in use: 5

·         Photo mugs not used in case photo fades: 2

·         Mugs of club we once belonged to: 2

·         ‘Funny’ mugs bought for us by friends and family: 6

·         ‘Theme’ mugs bought for us by friends and family: 4

·         Mugs so old they will be left as heirlooms: 8

·         Mugs in present motorhome: 4

So why don’t we just throw them away?

Well, you can’t can you? Open the cupboard and there, standing in serried rows, is the story of your life. Each one a memory, love, hate, lust, sorrow, a piece of you so intimate that you cannot wantonly destroy it. Look in your cupboard, wallow in the memories, that’s why you don’t throw them in the rubbish.

But, sometimes one slips from my grasp and, suddenly, I don’t mourn that memory passing. I curse and pick up the big bits, vacuum up the rest – and thank my lucky stars I still have 51 left.